Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of October 2016

The announced government proposals on the reform of public sector look as attempt to reduce the debt burden on enterprises without addressing to the internal causes of their inefficiency. The key issue of the next few months is reaching an agreement with the IMF about the start of credit program – to act as a guarantor of sufficient external financing and authorities’ willingness to implement serious structural reforms. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Мониторинг положения в области экономической безопасности Беларуси: октябрь 2016 г.

Озвученные предложения властей по реформе госсектора выглядят в большей степени попыткой снизить долговую нагрузку на предприятия без устранения внутренних причин их неэффективности. Ключевым вопросом ближайших месяцев остается достижение соглашения с МВФ о начале кредитной программы, которая одновременно выступит гарантом достаточности внешнего финансирования и готовности властей к серьезным структурным реформам. (PDF) Павел Кирковский

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of September 2016

The terms of oil and gas dispute with Russia and the agreement on a new IMF program are the key uncertainties for the nearest future. The possibility of launching deep structural reform, which is a key condition for receiving funding from the IMF, remains unclear because of the political position of the government. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Мониторинг положения в области экономической безопасности Беларуси: сентябрь 2016 г.

Ключевыми неопределенностями в краткосрочном периоде остаются условия окончания нефтегазового спора с Россией и достижение согласия по новой программе с МВФ. Возможность начала глубоких структурных реформ, которые являются ключевым условием получения финансирования от МВФ, все также остается туманной из-за политического позиции руководства страны. (PDF) Павел Кирковский

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of August 2016

The most serious risk to financial stability is the deterioration of the external trade sector. Possible weakening of the national currency, provoked by the external factors, can seriously aggravate the existing problems of Belarusian economy and offset current achievements of the authorities: to change the dynamics of inflation, to provoke an outflow of deposits, to accelerate the growth of bad debts in the banking sector, to exacerbate the problem of external public debt. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of April 2016

thumbnail of 2016-05 Belarus Economic Security April 2016 PB-ENG

The increased credit risks in the banking sector due to deterioration of the financial situation of the borrowers and the high relative share of the foreign currency loans represent the biggest threat to the financial stability of the country. The government still has the opportunities for leveling these challenges, but only at the cost of increasing problems with budget execution. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky