Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of September 2016

The terms of oil and gas dispute with Russia and the agreement on a new IMF program are the key uncertainties for the nearest future. The possibility of launching deep structural reform, which is a key condition for receiving funding from the IMF, remains unclear because of the political position of the government. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Мониторинг положения в области экономической безопасности Беларуси: сентябрь 2016 г.

Ключевыми неопределенностями в краткосрочном периоде остаются условия окончания нефтегазового спора с Россией и достижение согласия по новой программе с МВФ. Возможность начала глубоких структурных реформ, которые являются ключевым условием получения финансирования от МВФ, все также остается туманной из-за политического позиции руководства страны. (PDF) Павел Кирковский

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of August 2016

The most serious risk to financial stability is the deterioration of the external trade sector. Possible weakening of the national currency, provoked by the external factors, can seriously aggravate the existing problems of Belarusian economy and offset current achievements of the authorities: to change the dynamics of inflation, to provoke an outflow of deposits, to accelerate the growth of bad debts in the banking sector, to exacerbate the problem of external public debt. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of April 2016

thumbnail of 2016-05 Belarus Economic Security April 2016 PB-ENG

The increased credit risks in the banking sector due to deterioration of the financial situation of the borrowers and the high relative share of the foreign currency loans represent the biggest threat to the financial stability of the country. The government still has the opportunities for leveling these challenges, but only at the cost of increasing problems with budget execution. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky

Мониторинг положения в области экономической безопасности Беларуси: апрель 2016 г.

thumbnail of 2016-05 Belarus Economic Security April 2016 PB-RUS

Усиление кредитных рисков в банковском секторе, связанное с ухудшением финансового состояния заемщиков и высоким удельным весом валютных кредитов, представляет на текущий момент наибольшую угрозу для финансовой стабильности страны. Правительство пока располагает возможностями по нивелированию указанных вызовов, но только ценой нарастания проблем с исполнением бюджета. (PDF) Павел Кирковский, старший экономический аналитик Belarus Security Blog.

Situation In the Field of Economic Security of Belarus as of March 2016

The plans of Belarus government formally indicate willingness to activate market reforms, including those accompanied by unpopular measures. The authorities are being pushed towards such policy by the ongoing economic downturn and uncertainty on the foreign markets. At the same time, serious doubts remain about the sincerity of these intentions, which may turn out to be just a tool of facilitating negotiations with the international lenders. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky