The House of Representatives adopted a new military doctrine of Belarus in the first reading. It is stated that the document is based on the systematic analysis of the military and political situation, the concept of “color revolutions” and the mechanisms of changing the constitutional system, violation of territorial integrity of states by provoking internal armed conflicts. (PDF) Andrei Porotnikov
The increased credit risks in the banking sector due to deterioration of the financial situation of the borrowers and the high relative share of the foreign currency loans represent the biggest threat to the financial stability of the country. The government still has the opportunities for leveling these challenges, but only at the cost of increasing problems with budget execution. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky
April deadly skirmishes along the line of conflict in Karabakh, the so-called “four-day war,” highlighted the need for a reinvigorated international mediation effort. Yerevan’s disappointment over Russia’s approach to the Karabakh conflict may explain why Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan’s suggested that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs should perhaps initiate a total arms embargo on all conflicting sides. (PDF) Armen Grigoryan
In recent months, the idea of sending an OSCE armed police mission to the Donbas has become Kyiv’s idée fixe in the same way that holding local elections in the Donbas has become the West’s. Both believe that their proposals can give the stalled Minsk agreement a boost, or at least provide strong arguments to extend sanctions against Russia, which are set to expire in July. (PDF) Maksym Khylko
The most significant event of March was a visit to Minsk of the Pentagon delegation headed by the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Carpenter, who met the Belarusian Foreign and Defense Ministers, and personally Alexander Lukashenko. On March 4, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense held consultations with the NATO delegation on participation in the planning and assessment of forces within the “Partnership for Peace” program. On March 15, examination of the Belarusian Armed Forces started; combating hybrid threats was practiced among other tasks. (PDF) Andrei Porotnikov
The plans of Belarus government formally indicate willingness to activate market reforms, including those accompanied by unpopular measures. The authorities are being pushed towards such policy by the ongoing economic downturn and uncertainty on the foreign markets. At the same time, serious doubts remain about the sincerity of these intentions, which may turn out to be just a tool of facilitating negotiations with the international lenders. (PDF) Pavel Kirkovsky
